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Post by adambrid on Mar 19, 2024 15:41:49 GMT 1
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Post by adambrid on Mar 19, 2024 23:21:44 GMT 1
Big big win tonight, a hard fought one but another three points in the pocket!
Gabriel Johnson and Liam Tongue on target with former Lion Jacob Gratton striking from the spot to make a tense ending.
The first half was close with chances for both sides.
Tongue had the opening chance from a free kick won in the centre of the pitch around 30 yards from goal but his effort flew over.
Johnson also shot over after a turn on the edge of the box but it was Whitby who had the next big chance.
Doherty led a counter attack and fed in Smith but his shot flew well over the bar.
With 20 minutes gone Murphy had a excellent chance but Bland tipped the shot past the post.
From the resulting corner Walker saw an effort blocked but Johnson slammed home the rebound.
Tongue nearly doubled out lead with a 25 yarder that Bland saved with his feet.
Then up the other end Doherty nearly levelled the score but his shot from a tight angle dropped just wide.
Just before the break the hosts were down to 10 when Wheatley saw straight red for an off the ball incident.
The second half started with the hosts on top and Griffiths hit the post with a pinpoint drive.
With 20 minutes left it was 2-0 and what a beauty from Tongue, his long range shot flew into the far corner to double our lead.
Three minutes later the hosts had a penalty and Gratton dispatched it from the spot despite Battersby getting a touch.
Brown then received two harsh bookings to be sent off and make the sides even with ten a piece.
Whitby so nearly got a late equaliser when a shot from range dropped at the feet of an attacker but Battersby dove on the ball to keep it out.
A priceless win for the Lions to haul us back level with Marine in the play off race.
Well played Guiseley!
Onto Ilkeston Town at home on Saturday.
Come on Guiseley!
AB
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Post by cdp on Mar 20, 2024 1:16:59 GMT 1
All about the result this evening and somehow Guiseley managed to take home the three points. Whitby had the better of the first half but Guiseley snatched the lead when Johnson bundled home the rebound after Walker’s header from a corner hit the post. The uneven playing surface made life difficult for both sides and slick passing very challenging. Murphy was deployed on the right and failed to get into the game much and Afuye was largely anonymous on the left. Denton worked hard and was very effective when defending the numerous balls launched into the Guiseley box from free kicks and long throws. An eccentric refereeing performance included the sending off of Whitby’s no. 8 just before half time for criticising the referee. I thought the game management left a lot to be desired in the second half with Guiseley failing to keep the ball well enough against ten men. Liam Tongue’s left foot strike for Guiseley’s second goal was superb and should have calmed nerves but a soft looking penalty converted by Jacob Grattan led to a very nervy last 20 minutes during which Whitby had several decent chances to grab an equaliser. The back four were all outstanding and Brown’s sending off near the end of the game for a second booking looked harsh.
Six points from the last three difficult games is an excellent return in my view. Now we have seven matches remaining with five at home and decent home form should put us in a strong position to grab a play off spot. The next four matches, all at home will go a long way to deciding it one way or the other. We have garnered 48 points from the last 24 league matches, exactly 2 points per game. Repeating that for the last seven matches will move us to 72 points which I think will be enough.
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Post by Nik on Mar 20, 2024 7:58:45 GMT 1
What period do those 24 games represent, CDP? Liam’s interim time and Andy’s time so far? Or just from when Andy came in?
(2 points per game is second only to Radcliffe, just wondering if I haven’t quite realised how good we’ve been)
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Post by mark1985 on Mar 20, 2024 9:21:55 GMT 1
If my maths is correct I think results this season in the league by manager are:
Paul Phillips played 7: points 9: PPG 1.29
Liam Tongue played 5: points 10: PPG 2
Andy Welsh played 21: points 39: PPG 1.86
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Post by cdp on Mar 20, 2024 9:29:07 GMT 1
What period do those 24 games represent, CDP? Liam’s interim time and Andy’s time so far? Or just from when Andy came in? (2 points per game is second only to Radcliffe, just wondering if I haven’t quite realised how good we’ve been) Nick - it’s three matches under Liam and the rest are Andy. If I adjust to all of Liam and Andy it’s 49 points from 26 matches which is just under 2 points per game and if I look at the form table as you say we are second only to Radcliffe over the last 25 matches (49 points to Radcliffe’s 53). |
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Post by cdp on Mar 20, 2024 11:17:57 GMT 1
Here’s what the run in looks like for the teams who I believe are play off contenders. It makes interesting reading. Guiseley have more home games left than any of our rivals (5 out of 7). Most have more away than home games left. Most have two or three matches against playoff rivals but Rylands have four out of seven. Macclesfield 6 out of 9 away, Marine 5 out of 7 away, Worksop 5 out of 8 away
For a bit of fun I’ve looked at it two different ways. Firstly assume an average of two points for each home game and one for each away game. The play off positions would be -
Rylands 72
Hyde. 70
Guiseley 70
Macclesfield 68
Alternatively I assumed perfect home records for all and one point per game away with no points for the away team when they play a play off rival. Final table looks like -
Guiseley 75
Hyde 73
Rylands 72
Macclesfield 69
So it’s the same four teams in either scenario. Somewhat meaningless I know but interesting nonetheless and brings me back to the basic point that we have it firmly in our own hands to make the play offs and the key for me will be the next four matches, all at home and including Worksop and Warrington Rylands. Also suggests that 70 points may be enough to make the playoffs.
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Post by Nik on Mar 20, 2024 18:31:18 GMT 1
What period do those 24 games represent, CDP? Liam’s interim time and Andy’s time so far? Or just from when Andy came in? (2 points per game is second only to Radcliffe, just wondering if I haven’t quite realised how good we’ve been) Nick - it’s three matches under Liam and the rest are Andy. If I adjust to all of Liam and Andy it’s 49 points from 26 matches which is just under 2 points per game and if I look at the form table as you say we are second only to Radcliffe over the last 25 matches (49 points to Radcliffe’s 53). I honestly hadn't realised we were that good - I guess because every team is losing some games, but I only see us. We're basically the second or third best team in the league but gave everyone else a 3-4 game head start (points we would've won above what we did in the first seven matches if we'd started the season without PP). |
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Post by Nik on Mar 20, 2024 18:33:54 GMT 1
Here’s what the run in looks like for the teams who I believe are play off contenders. It makes interesting reading. Guiseley have more home games left than any of our rivals (5 out of 7). Most have more away than home games left. Most have two or three matches against playoff rivals but Rylands have four out of seven. Macclesfield 6 out of 9 away, Marine 5 out of 7 away, Worksop 5 out of 8 away For a bit of fun I’ve looked at it two different ways. Firstly assume an average of two points for each home game and one for each away game. The play off positions would be - Rylands 72 Hyde. 70 Guiseley 70 Macclesfield 68 Alternatively I assumed perfect home records for all and one point per game away with no points for the away team when they play a play off rival. Final table looks like - Guiseley 75 Hyde 73 Rylands 72 Macclesfield 69 So it’s the same four teams in either scenario. Somewhat meaningless I know but interesting nonetheless and brings me back to the basic point that we have it firmly in our own hands to make the play offs and the key for me will be the next four matches, all at home and including Worksop and Warrington Rylands. Also suggests that 70 points may be enough to make the playoffs. That's a fun exercise. Interesting how it's the same four teams either way - I suspect Marine will upset either us or Hyde, and Macclesfield will end up closer to Rylands than to 6th, but that's based on absolutely nothing useful such as who they're playing, current form, tiredness from playing games in hand, etc. |
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Post by rawdonlion on Mar 20, 2024 20:47:03 GMT 1
For me Hyde have the toughest run in. They also don’t play on the last day of the season (would have been away to Marske) so we’ll know what’s required at Workington assuming we’re behind them in the table come that day. Fingers crossed we’re ahead of them and it won’t matter!!
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Post by adambrid on Mar 20, 2024 21:45:27 GMT 1
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Post by cdp on Mar 21, 2024 12:25:04 GMT 1
For me Hyde have the toughest run in. They also don’t play on the last day of the season (would have been away to Marske) so we’ll know what’s required at Workington assuming we’re behind them in the table come that day. Fingers crossed we’re ahead of them and it won’t matter!! I think the table will become somewhat clearer by the end of Bank Holiday Monday 1 April. Assuming no postponements we will have played 2 home games and have 5 to play Macclesfield and Ashton will have played 4 games each (including playing each other) and will also have 5 to play. Marine will have played 3 away games and have 4 to play Hyde will have played three games all against play off contenders (Worksop, Rylands and Macclesfield) and will have just 3 to play. Rylands will have played 3 matches (including Marine and Hyde) and will have 4 to play Worksop will have played 3 matches and have 5 to play. So by end of 1 April no team will have any games in hand on us, we will have a game in hand on Marine and Rylands and two on Hyde so we will know exactly how many points we need from our last five matches to guarantee finishing ahead of Hyde. Most importantly we need to have another 6 points from our two home games by then!! |
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Post by MrP on Mar 21, 2024 12:43:27 GMT 1
It’s the hope that kills you! Would definitely have taken 6 points from the last 3 games. I think if we can get to 70 points then we’ll probably be in play-offs particularly when you see how many of the other teams play each other. Ideally you avoid Macc in the S-F and then we play them at our place in the F. Ah yes the hope…
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Post by rallyman on Mar 21, 2024 16:16:03 GMT 1
The good news is that all our contenders incl Worksop & Ashton cannot take 9 points due to fixtures against each other over the next three games. Hyde have a particularly difficult couple of weeks, but are good at home. I still think Macclesfield will be in the play-off's simply because they have the squad to deal with their fixture pile-up, their Trophy game could deflect their attention from league games though. As CDP has said will be interesting come 5pm on Easter Monday.
All of this only matters if we are sitting on 64 points come 5pm Sat though in my opinion as well as then taking points in both Rylands & Worksop games (and hopefully more than three).
At least we won't be in Hyde's position come April 27th, if they haven't secured a play-off spot and can only keep refreshing the NPL live scores and hope.
Rallyman
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